拱北隧道施工方案风险评估与决策研究

拱北隧道是港珠澳大桥珠海连接线的关键性控制工程,隧道穿过我国第一大陆路口岸拱北口岸,具有地质条件复杂、周边环境特殊、环境保护严格、技术风险高、协调难度大等特点。为降低工程施工风险,针对拱北隧道口岸段施工方案提出了单层明挖、单层暗挖、双层明挖和双层暗挖4个方案。本文从施工风险角度出发,对不同方案的常规工期风险、常规成本风险以及技术难度、协调管理、周边环境影响风险等进行评价,利用多目标决策方法,结合群决策计算过程,通过编制的决策计算软件对拱北隧道不同施工方案进行风险分析和决策。通过计算证明,拱北隧道口岸段采用双层暗挖方案实施风险最小,可作为施工推荐方案。

Decision Making of Construction Schemes of Gongbei Tunnel Based on Risk Assessment

Gongbei Tunnel is the critical part of Zhuhai Link Road Project of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. It goes through Gongbei Port, which is the greatest land-way port in mainland of China. The tunnel has some remarkable characteristics such as particular surrounding environment, complex geological conditions, rigorous environment protection, higher technological risk, heavy coordination work etc. In order to reduce construction risk level, four schemes were proposed for Gongbei Port section including single layer open and sub-surface excavation, double layer open and sub-surface excavation. This paper estimates the normal schedule and cost risk, technological difficulty, coordination problem and environment impact risks of different schemes from the view of construction risk, and a computer program is developed for decision making on theory of multi-objective and group decision making approach. According to the results from computer program, the scheme of double layer sub-surface excavation poses the least risk, so it is recommended as the proposed scheme.