具有非马尔可夫旅途感染的流行病传播模型研究

针对旅途中的接触可以扩大流行病传播规模的问题，在集合种群网络中考虑一种时滞旅行行为和旅途中的疾病传播和恢复过程，构建具有非马尔可夫旅途感染的传播模型并利用计算机仿真模拟系统中的传播过程。基于微观马尔可夫链方法，构建预测疾病流行阈值的理论框架。仿真结果表明，旅途感染可以促进流行病在旅途中的传播，抑制其在种群内的传播；旅途时长和旅途接触概率能够改变流行病的演化趋势。这些结果有助于理解旅途感染如何影响流行病的传播。

Research on epidemic spreading model with non-Markovian travel infection

Considering that the contacts between travelers promote the epidemic spreading, this study constructed a spreading model with non-Markovian travel process and used computer simulation technology to simulate the epidemic spreading, where the time delay travel process and the infection and recovery during travel were considered on the metapopulation network. Based on the microscopic Markovian chain approach(MMCA), this paper developed a theoretical framework to predict the epidemic threshold. Simulation results indicate that the travel infection promotes the infection in travel but inhibits the infection within the subpopulations, and the travel time and the travel contact rate may change the time evolution of prevalence. These results help to understand the influence of travel infection on epidemic spreading.