黄河干流水库联合调度径流预报模型研究

在简述线性水文系统中总径流线性响应模型ＴＬＲ与线性扰动模型ＬＰＭ以及时间序列的自回归ＡＲ模型、滑动平均ＭＡ模型和自回归滑动平均ＡＲＭＡ模型基础上，结合黄河干流水库联合调度研究阐明了黄河干流径流预报的构想及组合模型、并讨论了径流预报模型实时校正方法，同时分析了各模型的特点及其对水库优化调度的影响，这对黄河干流水库联合调度研究以及水库优化调度在实际中的应用具有重要意义．

RESEARCH ON RUNOFF FORECASTING IN RESERVOIRS JOINT OPERATION FOR THE YELLOW RIVER

Based on the brief introduction of the total linear recording (TLR)and the linear pertutation model (LPM )for linear hydrologic system, autoregressive(AR) model, moving average(MA)model and autoregreressive moving average (ARMA)model for time series, this paper presents the scheme and combination models of runoff forecasting for reservoirs jiont operation on the Yellow river, and discusses the methods about them. At same time, the fetuies and affection on reservoirs operation are analysed. It shows that the runoff forecasting is very imPOrtant to the reservoirs operation and its real application.