基于遥感影像的平朔矿区碳汇变化及预测研究

土地利用变化直接体现人类活动对生态系统的影响,是全球气候和碳循环变化的重要原因。煤炭开采造成矿区农用地非农化,导致生态环境恶化,改变碳汇量/价值。本文以平朔矿区为研究对象,选取1987年建矿以来的七期遥感影像作为基础数据,从土地利用变化角度定量研究了矿区不同发展阶段碳汇量/价值变化,并基于2013年、2018年两期数据,应用马尔科夫模型预测了未来10年矿区土地利用及碳汇量/价值的变化趋势。结果显示:①平朔矿区自开采以来的32年间土地利用结构发生显著变化,大量耕地和草地被转化成采矿用地和建设用地等,与开矿初期相比耕地,和草地面积分别减少了39.16%和58.32%,采矿用地、建设用地、裸地面积则分别增加了3.19倍、1.29倍、5.57倍;②1987～2013年碳汇量呈下降趋势,由132.38万t下降为120.85万t,碳汇价值由67 248.83万元下降为61 390.50万元,2013年以后至2018年分别增加到124.03万t和63 009.33万元;③未来10年平朔矿区土地利用结构基本稳定,耕地、建设用地及裸地面积略有减少,林地、采矿用地面积略有增加;预计2023年和2028年矿区碳汇量分别比2018年增加0.50万t和0.70万t,碳汇价值分别增加254.79万元和355.84万元,矿区生态环境逐渐改善。

Carbon sink change and prediction of Pingshuo mining area based on remote sensing image

Land use change directly reflects the impact of human activities on ecosystems which is an important cause of global climate and carbon cycle changes. Coal mining has caused non-agriculturalization of agricultural land in mining areas, resulting in deterioration of the ecological environment and changing the amount/value of carbon sinks. Taking the Pingshuo mining area as the research object, this paper selects remote sensing images from seven periods since the 1987 mine construction as basic data, and quantitatively studies the carbon sink volume/value change in different development stages of the mining area from the perspective of land use change. Based on the data of 2013 and 2018, the Markov model is used to predict the trend of land use and carbon sink/value in the mining area in the next 10 years. The results show that: (1) In the past 32 years, the land use structure of the Pingshuo mining area has changed significantly. A large amount of cultivated land and grassland have been converted into mining land and construction land. Compared with the initial mining period, the cultivated land and grassland area have decreased by 39.16% and 58.32% respectively, and the mining land, construction land and bare land area have increased by 3.19 times, 1.29 times and 5.57 times respectively. (2) From 1987 to 2013, the amount of carbon sinks showed a downward trend, from 1,323,800 tons to 1,208,500 tons, and the value of carbon sinks decreased from 6,724,833,000 yuan to 6,39,390,500 yuan. and increased to 1,240,300 tons and 630,093,300 yuan from 2013 to 2018, respectively. (3) The land use structure of Pingshuo Mining Area will be basically stable in the next 10 years, the area of cultivated land, construction land and bare land will be slightly reduced, the area of woodland and mining land will increase slightly. It is estimated that the carbon sinks in the mining areas in 2023 and 2028 will increase by 5 thousand tons and 7 thousand tons respectively compared with 2018. The value of carbon sink will increase by 2,549,900 yuan and 3,558,400 yuan respectively, and the ecological environment of the mining area will gradually improve.