基于模糊统计法的浙江省洪水分期过渡期及其空间分布规律

鉴于确定洪水分期过渡期在水库实际调度中的重要意义,针对浙江省洪水分期的主要特点,基于浙江省9个代表性雨量站1961~2010年降水资料,应用模糊统计法确定了各雨量站洪水分期过渡期,进而分析了全省分期过渡期的空间分布规律。结果表明,浙西、浙南地区率先进入汛前过渡期,浙中及杭嘉湖平原地区进入汛前过渡期的时间最晚;率先进入汛后过渡期的同样是浙西、浙南地区,其次是浙中及杭嘉湖平原地区,最后进入汛后过渡期的是浙东沿海区;浙西和浙中地区汛前过渡期持续时间较短,而其他地区稍长;浙东沿海区汛后过渡期持续时间较短,其次为浙中地区,而浙西地区最长。

Transitional Period of Flood Season Staged in Zhejiang Province and Its Spatial Distribution Pattern Based on Fuzzy Statistical Method

In view of the significance of determining transitional period of flood season staged in reservoir practice operation, aimed at the main features of flood season staged in Zhejiang Province, transitional period of flood season staged in nine stations was determined by using fuzzy statistical method based on the precipitation data of nine representative precipitation stations during 1961-2010 in Zhejiang Province. And then the spatial distribution pattern of transitional period of flood season staged was analyzed. The results show that the west and south of Zhejiang Province are the first to enter the transitional period before flood season and the center and Hangjiahu Plain are the last to enter it; the west and the south are also the first to enter the transitional period after flood season, the center and Hangjiahu Plain are the second, the eastern coastal areas are the last; the duration of transitional period before flood season is shorter in center and west of Zhejiang Province than the other areas; the duration of transitional period after flood season is the shortest in eastern coastal areas, the center is the second, and the west is the longest.