多层圈闭资源量计算方法研究——以两层圈闭为例

容积法是圈闭地质资源量计算常用方法，包括确定法和概率法2种。与确定法相比，概率法可提供不同风险的圈闭地质资源量值，能更好地对圈闭地质资源量的不确定性进行评估。当勘探目标具有多套目的层时，以往是将各目的层圈闭资源量算术加和作为勘探目标资源量，该算法经常造成与实际地质储量相差较为悬殊，从而失去钻前资源量计算参考价值。在考虑圈闭各目的层风险（或含油气概率）的基础上，通过分析各目的层之间的地质相关关系，即：无地质相关、部分地质相关和完全地质相关3种情况，计算出不同成功情况下的圈闭含油气概率和风险后的地质资源量，并利用风险后的地质资源量除以至少有1个目的层成功的含油气概率，最终得到多层圈闭（勘探目标）资源量。

Resource calculation methods for multilayer traps:Case study of two-layer traps

Volumetric method is a formal way to predict the in-place or recoverable resources of a play or trap, including deterministic and probabilistic methods. Probabilistic evaluation is an optimal way for the assessment of resources in tectonic traps, but the resource assessment of targets with multiple strata is usually calculated by directly and simply cumulating the resources of individual targets using given specified success probability weights. This prediction generally does not correctly reflect actual geological conditions. Taking into account the risk of each target stratum in the trap, we analyzed the geological correlation between each target, including non-correlation, partial and complete geological correlation, and calculated the probability of in-place resources under different conditions. Then the risked resource in-place is divided by the probability of hydrocarbons existing in at least one of the targets to obtain the resource volumes of multilayer traps.