电力配电设备故障风险评估模型研究

文章在国内外相关研究的基础上,分析设备故障风险评估的基本概念和方法。对电力配电设备故障风险因素进行识别分类,并根据风险因素的类别将设备故障风险分为常态风险、动态风险和突发风险。详细阐述了基于风险因素的设备常态、动态、突发故障概率的求取方法;建立多指标体系,用严重度从不同角度对配电设备故障导致的后果进行量化。提出设备故障常态风险、动态风险和突发风险的量化评估计算方法,为设备状态检修及电网的日常运行提供理论依据。

Failure Risk Assessment of Distribution Equipment

Based on the research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the basic concept and methods of equipment failure risk assessment. Then, it identifies risk factors of equipment failure, and classifies equipment failure risk as the normal risk, dynamic risk and unexpected sudden risk according to the classification of risk factors. However, it also elaborates on the calculation of the equipment failure probability and establishes a multi-index system to quantify the severity and distribution equipment from a different perspective on the consequences of failure. Finally, it proposes a quantitative risk assessment method of the normal risk, dynamic risk and sudden risk of equipment failure as a theoretical basis for equipment condition-based maintenance and daily operation of the grid.