尼尔基水库上游融雪径流模拟及预报

准确可靠预报融雪径流对寒区洪旱灾害的监测及水资源管理具有重要意义。根据尼尔基水库上游季节性融雪产流特点，结合蓄满产流理论，考虑寒冷地区冻土的不〖JP2〗透水、蓄水调节、蒸发抑制等作用及冻土融冻期水文特性，构建了耦合度-日融雪模型、径流系数法及新安江模型的分散式融雪径流预报模型，采用1979~〖JP〗1988年的水文气象资料对模型进行了率定，并根据2000~2003年相应资料验证了模型合理性。通过对5个不同时间尺度径流量的模拟与验证结果表明，模型具有较好精度，在研究区具有较强适用性，可为尼尔基水库春、夏两季入库径流预报提供参考。

Melting Snow Runoff Simulation and Forecasting in Upper Reaches of Nierji Reservoir Basin

In the cold region of Northeast China, accurate forecasting of melting snow runoff has practical value for the flood and drought disaster monitoring and the regional water resources management. In this paper, a semi distributed hydrologic model is developed for Nierji Reservoir basin, which is located at the upstream area of Nen River. The degree day melting snow method, runoff coefficient method for routing and Xinanjiang model are combined in this integrated model according to stored full runoff yield theory, as well as the frozen soil thawing period hydrological characteristics. Hydrometeorological data during 1979~1988 are used to calibrate the model and the corresponding data during 2000~2003 are selected to validate the rationality of the model. The simulation and validation result at 5 different time scale show that the model has good accuracy and stronger applicability, which provides references for the runoff forecasting of the reservoir in the spring and summer seasons.