MIKE11模型在浑河流域水质预测中的应用

针对辽宁省浑河流域沈阳段水环境污染严重的现状，应用MIKE11模型构建了流域水动力和水质耦合模型，利用水质实测资料进行了参数率定及模型检验，分析了参数取值的合理性；并研究了不同情景下该流域水质变化趋势及水质改善的效果。结果表明，模型在率定期和验证期模拟效果均良好，可供水质研究参考并为未来沈阳市污染物排放控制提供理论依据。采用自然增长、社会调控与社会-环境-经济协调发展三种情景进行水质预测，分析了不同发展方式的合理性，结果表明第三种方式最有利于经济环境健康发展。

Application of MIKE11 Model in Water Quality Prediction of Hunhe River Basin

In view of the serious situation of water environmental pollution in Shenyang section of Hunhe River Basin in Liaoning Province, MIKE11 software is adopted to build hydrodynamic and water quality coupled model. And then the water quality observed data are used to parameters calibration and model test. Finally, the rationality of parameter is analyzed. Moreover, the effect of water quality changes and improvement is studied under different scenarios. The results show that the proposed model has good simulation effects, which provides reference for further research on water quality and also provides scientific basis for control pollutant emission in Shenyang City in future years. Three scenarios of natural growth, social regulation and social economy environment coordinated development are used to predict the water quality. Rationality of different development ways is also analyzed. It indicates that the third way is the most propitious one for the development of economic and environment.