仿真技术在维修资源预测中的应用研究

维修资源是维修保障系统的重要组成部分，维修资源预测的是否合理将直接影响着部队的保障能力和经济效益。该文以某简单电子装备系统为例，首先对维修保障系统进行了深入分析；然后确定了用蒙特卡罗仿真方法预测维修资源的一般过程，即设定参数、明确输入信息、建立仿真模型、制定仿真流程和设计仿真程序等；最后通过理论计算与仿真结果的比较，证明了维修资源仿真预测的可行性。这为复杂装备系统维修资源的科学预测积累了经验，因此具有十分重要的现实意义。

Research on Application of Simulation Technology in Maintenance Resources Prediction

Maintenance resource plays an important role in the maintenance support system, the result that the predication for maintenance resource is reasonable or not will directly influences the support ability and economic benefit in the Army. Taking electrical equipment as an example, at first this paper analyzes the maintenance support system, then promotes a general process for the simulation prediction by Monte-Carlo simulation method, which includes designing parameters, exclaiming input information, establishing simulation models, built simulation flow and designing program. At last, by comparing the simulation results to the computed values in theory, this paper proves the maintenance support resources can be well predicted by the computer simulation. This method has a significant value for which accumulates some experiences in more complex equipment.