基于长时间尺度的园区综合能源系统随机规划

针对已有的综合能源系统规划模型不能很好地评价能源设备全生命周期的利用率,采用设备的年利用小时数作为衡量设备全寿命周期利用率的指标,同时为避免规划中短时间尺度负荷预测误差太大的问题,提出一种计及风、光、荷不确定性的园区综合能源系统长时间尺度规划方法。建立风机、光伏年利用小时数的随机模型以及冷、热、电负荷年需求量的随机分布模型,以计及储能效益的综合能源系统年投资运行费用最小为目标,建立含电储、热储、热电联供等多种能源设备的园区综合能源系统随机规划模型,并探讨了不同置信度水平下的配置结果。同时,结果验证了所提的基于长时间尺度的区域综合能源系统随机规划模型在解决园区综合能源系统容量配置问题时的有效性。

Stochastic planning of park-level integrated energy system based on long time-scale

As for the existing planning models of integrated energy system cannot well evaluate the full life cycle utilization rate of energy equipment, the annual utilization hours of equipment are adopted as the index of equipment utilization during its whole life circle, and a park-level integrated energy system planning method for a long time-scale considering uncertainties of wind power, solar energy and load is put forward to avoid the problem of large error for load prediction in short time-scale. The stochastic mathematical models are respectively built to describe annual utilization hours of wind turbine, photovoltaic and annual demands of cold, heat, electricity load. On this basis, the allocation capacities of park-level integrated energy system equipment including electric/heat storage, cogeneration and other energy devices are optimized, to minimize the annual investment operating cost containing energy storage revenue. Meanwhile, the results under different confidence levels are discussed, which verifies that the proposed stochastic planning model based on long time-scale is effective in solving the capacity allocation problem of park-level integrated energy system.