| GM(1,1)改进模型在大坝位移预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王勇,胡平,申莲,王汉中.GM(1,1)改进模型在大坝位移预测中的应用[J].云南水力发电,2011,27(2):28-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王勇 胡平 申莲 王汉中 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆巴州希尼尔水库管理处,新疆,库尔勒,841000 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统GM(1,1)模型的不足,分别从提高原始序列的光滑度、优化时间响应函数两个方面对其进行了改进,对模型进行残差检验和后验差检验,并建立一种新的GM(1,1)模型,将改进了的模型应用于大坝位移预测中,结果显示:新的GM(1,1)模型拟合预测精度明显高于传统模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 大坝位移预测 |
Application of the GM(1,1) Improved Model to Forecasting of Darn Displacement |
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| WANG Yong,HU Ping,SHEN Lian,WANG Han-zhong.Application of the GM(1,1) Improved Model to Forecasting of Darn Displacement[J].Yunnan Water Power,2011,27(2):28-30. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yong HU Ping SHEN Lian WANG Han-zhong |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Yong,HU Ping,SHEN Lian,WANG Han-zhong(Xinier Water Reservoir Administrative Office of Bayinguoleng Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,Kuerlei 841000,Xinjiang,China) |
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| Abstract: | The traditional GM(1,1) model was improved in two aspects of smoothness of original sequence and optimization of time response function according to its disadvantage.Thus a new GM(1,1) model has been established after check of its residual error and posterior error.The improved model was applied to forecasting of dam displacement and its application results have indicated that the goodness of fit forecasting accuracy of the new model is significantly higher than that of the traditional one. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory GM(1 1) model dam displacement forecasting |
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