一种冲击地压危险性等级多参量辨识模型及应用

为了实现对冲击地压危险性等级快速、高效和准确预测,需要考虑冲击地压危险性多种影响因素,但影响因素间或多或少存在一定的相关性,从而导致参量信息重叠。提出一种主成分分析法(PCA)对冲击地压危险性相关指标数据进行降维处理,提取3个新指标对冲击地压危险性等级进行总体评价。在PCA的基础上,借鉴距离判别分析法(DDA),建立冲击地压危险性等级评价的PCA-DDA模型,将PCA-DDA模型应用于重庆砚石台煤矿冲击地压危险性等级评价。预测结果表明:在6种不同的训练和测试样本数下PCA-DDA模型仍具有良好的预测效果,其误判率分别为5.71%,5.71%,5.71%,5.71%,5.71%和8.57%;同时验证了PCA对冲击地压危险性评价结果。该模型可为矿山开采中冲击地压危险性等级评价提供借鉴,可在实际工程中推广应用。

A multi-parameter identification model for classification of rock burst risk and its application

Rock burst is one of common mine dynamic disasters in mine production activities.So,the high accurate evaluation of rock burst hazard grade should be used to ensure a safe mining production.In order to realize a rapid,efficient and accurate forecast of rock burst hazard classification,multiple factors should be considered which exist more or less correlations that lead to the overlapping of parameter information.An improved principal component analysis (PCA) method was proposed to reduce the dimensionality of the rockburst risk index data.And three new indexes were extracted to conduct an overall risk classification evaluating on the rock burst.On the basis of PCA and the distance discriminant analysis (DDA),the PCA model for rock burst hazard classification evaluation was established and applied to Yanshitai coal mine in Chongqing City.The prediction results showed that with six different training and testing samples,the PCA-DDA model still had a favorable predictive effect,and the misjudgment rates were respectively 5.71%,5.71%,5.71%,5.71%,5.71% and 8.57%.Meanwhile the prediction performance of PCA-DDA model had been proved.The model can provide a suitable approach for the evaluation of rock burst hazard grade in mining,and can be popularized in practical engineering.