基于维纳退化过程的装备视情维修策略研究

在利用维纳退化过程对装备进行建模时，为更加准确地描述其关键部件的退化过程，提出考虑维修活动对装备性能退化速率和初始退化量的影响；在所建模型的基础上，基于首达时间的概念得到剩余寿命的概率分布，根据剩余寿命的预测值作为时间间隔开展非周期性能检测，将得到的退化量同故障阈值和维修阈值相比较，做出相应维修活动；然后，以维修阈值为变量，在关键部件的视情维修策略中，应用蒙特卡洛循环仿真方法选取最优值实现效费比最小，进而降低装备在使用过程中的效费比；最后，以舰船关键部件陀螺仪为例，仿真得到剩余寿命预测值的相对误差小于0.3%,当设置维修阈值为8.02°/d时，效费比达到最低为199.996元/天，与传统周期检测视情维修策略相比，节约了检测成本，降低了事后维修的次数，减少了维修费用，有效地降低了效费比。

Research on equipment condition-based maintenance strategy based on Wiener degradation process

In order to describe the degradation process of key components more accurately, the influence of maintenance activities on the degradation rate and initial degradation of equipment performance was proposed when the Wiener degradation process is used to model equipment. Based on the established model, the probability distribution of the remaining useful life is obtained based on the concept of first arrival time. According to the predicted value of the remaining useful life, the aperiodic performance detection is carried out as the time interval, and the degradation value obtained is compared with the fault threshold and maintenance threshold, the corresponding maintenance activities are made. Then, taking maintenance threshold as variable, Monte Carlo cycle simulation method is used to select the optimal value to achieve the minimum cost-effectiveness ratio in the condition based maintenance strategy of key components, so as to reduce the cost-effectiveness ratio during the use of equipment. Finally, the ship component gyroscope is taken as an example, the simulation results show that the relative error of the predicted the remaining useful life value is less than 0.3%. When the maintenance threshold is set as 8.02 degrees/day, the efficiency ratio reaches the lowest as 199.996 yuan/day. The simulation and comparison between periodic detection of condition based maintenance strategy show that the proposed method can save the detection cost, cut down the number of the breakdown maintenance, decrease the maintenance cost, and effectively reduce the cost-effectiveness ratio.