| 基于权重系数的变电工程造价敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘思聪,周步祥,宋〓洁,唐〓浩.基于权重系数的变电工程造价敏感性分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(2):200-203. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘思聪 周步祥 宋〓洁 唐〓浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学 电气信息学院， 四川 成都 610065； 2. 四川水利职业技术学院， 四川 成都 611830； 3. 四川电力设计咨询有限责任公司， 四川 成都 610041 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高电力工程造价准确度,降低新建输变电工程的结余率,针对变电工程造价的敏感性问题,考虑变电工程中各个分项费用的实际变化率,提出了一种基于权重系数的敏感性分析方法,并采用一种改进的GM(1,1)模型对变电工程造价中敏感性程度较高的两项进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明,所提出的敏感性分析方法具有更高的实用价值,且改进的GM(1,1)模型较常规GM(1,1)模型具有更加准确的拟合值,能为相关决策人员提供更加可靠的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 工程造价 结余率 权重系数 敏感性 GM(1 1)模型 |
Sensitivity Analysis of Power Engineering Cost Based on Weight Coefficient |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the accuracy of power engineering cost and reduce the balance rate of new power transmission project, taking into account the actual change rate of cost of each part in the substation project, a sensitivity analysis method based weight coefficient was proposed to deal with the sensitivity of substation project cost. And then an improved GM (1,1) model was used to simulate the two items with high sensitivity in the substation engineering cost. The simulation results show that the proposed sensitivity analysis method has higher practical value, and the improved GM (1,1) model is more accurate than the conventional GM (1,1) model, which can provide more reliable suggestions for decision makers. |
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| Keywords: | engineering cost balance rate weight coefficient sensitivity GM (1 1) model |
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