绿洲生态稳定性预测

本文以宁夏绿洲为例，综合考虑水资源、土地资源、生物资源和环境因子四项影响绿洲生态稳定性的主要因素，建立了系统的绿洲生态稳定性评价指标体系，在此基础上，应用广义水资源合理配置模型以及依托配置模型构建的植被群落盖度与地下水埋深之间的关系，建立了绿洲生态稳定性预测模型，对受水资源约束条件下的绿洲生态演化过程进行了定量分析，预测未来不同水资源条件下的绿洲生态稳定性。预测结果表明，2010、2020年水平年50％黄河来水频率下，绿洲生态稳定性整体处于良好状态；75％黄河来水频率下，整体处于一般状态。绿洲生态稳定性变化趋势符合当地社会经济发展趋势，结果合理。

Prediction of stability of ecosystem in oasis

The index system for assessing the stability of ecosystem in oasis of the Ningxia Autonomous Region, China, is established based on water resources, soil resources, biology resources and environment which are important factors affecting the stability of ecosystem. On this basis, by applying the model for rational deployment model of water resources and utilizing the relationship between vegetation coverage percentage and groundwater table a model for predicting the stability of ecosystem in oasis is established. The model is used to quantitatively analyze the process of ecology evolution in oasis and predict the stability under various water resources conditions. The prediction indicates that the ecosystem in this region will be in good state when inflow of the Yellow River is at probability of 50% and will be in ordinary state at probability of 75%, both for the inflow level of 2010 and 2020. This result agrees with the forecasted trend of social and economic development in this region.