2009年下半年我国经济走势及石油石化行业发展态势

2009年上半年我国经济已企稳向好，但经济回升基础尚不稳固，经济运行中的不确定、不稳定因素仍然较多．如经济回升主要依靠政策推动，信贷井喷式增长存在潜在风险，消费对经济增长的拉动力仍显不足，国际经济环境依然严峻。下半年宏观政策将保持稳定，经济增速继续缓慢回升．模型预测结果表明．我国1～3季度经济增速为7．6％．全年经济增速在8％左右。2009年上半年我国石油石化行业经济运行总体平稳趋好，石油生产回暖．但供大于求的格局并没有改变。预计2009年下半年国际油价仍可能在每桶60～80美元的较合理的区间震荡，我国石油石化行业仍将在景气低位运行。我国石油企业应积极采取措施应对短期冲击，并增强可持续竞争能力。

The Trends in Chinese Economy and Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry in H2 2009

The Chinese economy er,the fundamentals to buoy this omy： this economic： upswing was stabilized and showed a sign recovery are still unstable and of rally in the first half of this year.Howevnumerous uncertainties remained in the econmainly driven by policies;there are potential risks in the exploding growth of credit loans;the current level of consumption seems barely able to sustain long-term economic growth;the global economic situation remains stern.In the second half of 2009,China will maintain its macroeconomic policies and the Chinese economy will continue to recover slowly.Modeling results show that the Chinese economy grew by 7.6% in the first three quarters of this year and that the economy will grow by some 8% for the whole of the year.In general,the Chinese petroleum and petrochemical industry operated steadily in the first half of this year with production beginning to rally and the market remaining oversupplied.It is predicted that international oil prices will continue to hover around US60-80/bbl,a relatively reasonable price range ,in the second half of 2009 and that the business climate index for the Chinese petroleum and petrochemical industry will remain low.Chinese oil enterprises should be prepared for the short-term impact and move to enhance their ability to compete in a sustainable way.