闽江流域洪水预报模型比较研究

应用新安江模型与垂向混合产流模型对闽江流域干流以上的15个子流域进行了模拟验证,进一步论证了这两种概念性流域水文模型结构的合理性,并得出了如下结论:大闽江流域,新安江模型与垂向混合产流模型都适用,且均能取得良好的效果。由于不同的洪水预报模型考虑产流机理的不同,采用的结构与参数不同,对不同洪水特征的计算结果也有差别,在实际使用中,设置不同结构的洪水预报模型是必要而且是有效的。同时,还对历史洪水根据其涨洪前段的实测流量过程与模型计算流量过程的确定性系数最大作为选择模型的标准,进行模型选择模拟预报。由此还得出另一个结论:在实时洪水预报中,根据不同的预知信息实时选择最佳的模型,能提高洪水预报的精度。

Comparison Research on Flood Forecasting Model of Min River Basin

By using Xinanjiang model and vertical hybrid runoff generation model, analog verification for fifteen sub basins of Min river basin main stream has been made to prove the rationality of the two hydrological conceptual basin models structure, Through the verification, the author draws the following conclusions: two models are both adequate for Min river basin, and will achieve good results. Because of different runoff generation principle with flood forecasting model, applied model structure and parameters will be various .It will also exert an influence on different flood characteristics calculation results. In actual use, it is necessary and effective to set flood forecasting model with different structure. What's more, taking determinacy coefficient maximum of measured flow measurement process and model calculation process before flood rise period as model selection criteria, model selection of analog forecasting for historical flood has been done. Finally, it is concluded that the best model selection in the light of different predicted information will improve precision for flood forecasting.