| 神舟飞船关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 尚志,赵志纲.神舟飞船关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型[J].机械设计与制造工程,2011(6):13-16,21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尚志 赵志纲 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]西北工业大学机电学院,陕西西安710072 [2]中国空间技术研究院,北京100094 |
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| 基金项目： | 民用飞机关键技术预先研究项目（2009ZE53052） |
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| 摘 要： | 在研究关键链项目管理和贝叶斯网络技术的基础上,结合神舟飞船项目进度管理的特点,建立了神舟飞船关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型。首先详细描述了如何将关键链中的每个工序按照时间和资源约束的条件分解成贝叶斯网络模型中的6个节点,并进一步简化为4个节点。然后,以神舟飞船研制网络计划图为依据,说明了关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型的建立过程。最后,基于贝叶斯网络推理成功识别出影响神舟飞船项目进度推迟的关键工序。
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| 关 键 词： | 神舟飞船 进度管理 关键链 贝叶斯网络 |
The Critical Chain Project Management Bayesian Network Model for the Shenzhou Spacecraft |
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| SHANG Zhi,ZHAO Zhi-gang.The Critical Chain Project Management Bayesian Network Model for the Shenzhou Spacecraft[J].Machine Design and Manufacturing Engineering,2011(6):13-16,21. |
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| Authors: | SHANG Zhi ZHAO Zhi-gang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Northwestern Polytechnical University,Shaanxi Xi＇an,710072,China)(2.China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing,100094,China) |
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| Abstract: | It establishes the critical chain project management Bayesian network model for the Shenzhou spacecraft based on the characteristics of critical chain project management and Bayesian network technologies.First,it brokes down each procedure in critical chain project management into six nodes in Bayesian network based on the chronological order and resource constraints.Then,it uses four nodes for model simplification to replace the six nodes of each procedure.The application of the network planning case of Shenzhou spacecraft design demonstrates the modeling process of critical chain project management Bayesian network model.The case study shows how to identify the key procedure which affects the Shenzhou spacecraft project schedule most. |
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| Keywords: | Shenzhou Spacecraft Schedule Management Critical Chain Bayesian Network |
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