房地产预警警源指标选择方法探析

房地产预警作为宏观经济预警的重要分支,其指标体系的研究具备重要的理论与现实价值.其中预警指标体系的研究尚存在很多问题,对于警源指标的选择目前还缺乏有效的定量研究手段.本文通过对多属性不确定性决策方法的采用,提出了基于多属性不确定性决策的房地产预警警源指标选择的定量研究方法,并利用算例数据对于多决策者主体、警情权重完全未知的多警情、多警源研究算例进行了评估.研究结论表明本文的研究方法可以有效地作用于房地产预警指标体系研究的警源指标的选择.

Analysis of Selection Method of Risk Source Indicators of Real Estate Early-warning

Real estate early-warning is an important branch of macroeconomic early-warning, and research on its indicator system has important theoretical and realistic values. There are still many problems in research on early-warning indicator system, and currently selection of risk source indicators lacks effective quantitative research means. By adopting multi-attribute uncertainty decision-making method, the article puts forward quantitative research method for selection of risk source indicators of real estate early-warning based on multi-attribute uncertainty decision-making, and evaluates multi-alert circumstance and multi-risk source research calculation example with multiple decision-makers and completely unknown weight of alert circumstance using data of calculation example. The research conclusion shows the research method in the article can be effectively applied to selection of risk source indicators of research on real estate early-warning indicator system.