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| 基于时序-神经网络模型的我国石油消费预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 石艳丽,安海忠,高湘昀.基于时序-神经网络模型的我国石油消费预测[J].资源与产业,2011,13(2):37-42. |
| 作者姓名： | 石艳丽 安海忠 高湘昀 |
| 作者单位： | (1中国地质大学 资源环境管理实验室，北京 100083；2中国地质大学〖KG*2〗地球科学与资源学院，北京 100083； 3中国地质大学 人文经管学院，北京 100083) |
| 摘 要： | 对我国石油消费进行预测和研究，有助于提高石油生产、进口及消费的合理性。本文采用BP神经网络预测方法，建立时序-神经网络预测模型，并取我国往年石油消费量中两次不同的样本预测我国2010-2012年的石油消费量，对两次实验结果进行比对。结果表明，该模型具有较好可行性，用近些年数据作为样本得到的预测结果更接近前几年石油消费量的变化趋势，可为石油需求规划提供参考依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 石油消费 模型 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-10-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-12-20 |
CHINA'S PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PREDICTION BASED ON TIME-NEURAL NETWORK MODEL |
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| SHI Yan-li,AN Hai-zhong,GAO Xiang-yun.CHINA'S PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PREDICTION BASED ON TIME-NEURAL NETWORK MODEL[J].Resources & Industries,2011,13(2):37-42. | |
| Authors: | SHI Yan-li AN Hai-zhong GAO Xiang-yun |
| Affiliation: | (1. Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. School of the Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 3. School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: | To study and predict China’s petroleum consumption helps improve rationality in petroleum production, import and consumption. This paper adopts BP neural network prediction to establish time-neural network model, which is applied to predict the petroleum consumption quantity in 2010-2012 based on two different petroleum consumption quantity. This model has been proven to be workable. The prediction results acquired from latest data are closer to the growing trend of petroleum consumption, providing references for petroleum demand planning. |
| Keywords: | BP neural network petroleum consumption model prediction |
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