基于空间饱和负荷密度的负荷预测方法

负荷预测对电力系统规划具有至关重要的作用,根据华中某市的社会经济发展水平,在借鉴国内其他城市负荷密度水平的基础上,制定了某市的负荷密度指标集。根据某市的远期发展规划,对市各功能分区的饱和负荷值进行了预测,最终得到了某市至饱和年的饱和负荷。人均饱和电量法验证了空间负荷预测方法的有效性,饱和负荷密度主题图直观地反映了市规划区未来的负荷空间分布情况。饱和负荷预测结果为后续电源点布置、输电廊道确定和输电线路选型提供了有力的科学依据。

Load Forecasting Method Based on Spatial Saturated Load Density

Load forecasting plays an important role in power system planning.According to the social economic development level of a certain city in Central China and under consideration of load density levels of other cities in China,a load density index set was formulated for the above mentioned city.In line with its long-term development plan,saturated load values of function divisions of the city were estimated,and its saturated loads up to the year of saturation were obtained.Per capita saturated electricity method has verified the effectiveness of spatial load forecasting method,and the saturated load density topic map could reflect intuitively future spatial load distribution of the planned area of the city.Results of the saturated load forecasting could provide a strong scientific basis for subsequent power supply point layout,determination of power transmission corridors and model selection of transmission lines.