中国页岩气资源勘探开发挑战初论

鉴于地质条件与国情的明显差异，中国能否成功复制美国的“页岩气革命”成为时下关注的焦点。为此，分析了中国页岩气资源勘探开发拥有的良好机遇以及面临的严峻挑战。其中，机遇包括：①中国能源结构亟待改善，天然气需求量在未来5年的能源消费结构中的比例将增长1倍；②能源需求量持续攀升，到2020年中国天然气年均消费量仍将以19%的复合年增长率递增；③页岩气资源丰富，预测中国页岩气地质资源量为57×10¹²～244×10¹²m³，技术可采资源量为10.3×10¹²～47×10¹²m³；④已初步形成了页岩气勘探开发技术。挑战包括：①独特的页岩气形成与富集地质条件差异；②资源前景与核心区尚不完全落实；③勘探开发核心技术尚不掌握；④勘探开发成本偏高；⑤环境保护问题；⑥尽管中国已将页岩气定义为一个新的矿种，但就其根源和本质，页岩气还是油气资源中的一种类型，只不过与其他油气资源相比具有其独特性而已，因此非油气企业贸然从事页岩气勘探开发将会面临诸多挑战；⑦自页岩气被设立为新矿种起，政府管理工作的挑战就产生了。结论认为：中国页岩气勘探开发正处在起步阶段，有诸多基础工作尚未深入开展，仍有系列严峻挑战需要应对。既不能因噎而废食，也需做好扎实工作。

A primary discussion on challenges for exploration and development of shale gas resources in China

Due to obvious difference in geological and national conditions, whether or not China can successfully duplicate the American style of shale gas revolution to realize the scientific development of shale gas has already become the most concerned focus at present. In view of this, this paper analyzes good opportunities and severe challenges for the exploration and development of shale gas in China. Good opportunities include as follows: (1) The energy structure is to be changed. (2) The energy demand is keeping rising. (3) There is rich shale gas resources in China, the reserves of which in place is predicted to be 57 – 244 trillion m³ and the technical recoverable reserves of which will be 10.3 – 47 trillion m³. (4) Technologies have been primarily formed for shale gas exploration and development. The following issues are severe challenges to be faced with: the difference in geological conditions between the specific formation process of shale gas and its accumulation; being unknown of prospective and target zones; being lack of key technologies for shale gas exploration and development; a relatively high cost for shale gas exploration and development; high requirement for environment protection. Besides, since the shale gas was regarded as a new mineral species, the government has been troubled by managing to deal with various problems. However, other companies will meet more unexpected challenges in this domain than oil and gas companies if not deliberating their decisions. In the end, this paper points out the fact is that because shale gas exploration and development is still at the initial stage, a lot of elemental work needs to do and great challenge has to be faced with; however, never shall we dare not to eat for fear of being choked, and be brave enough to overcome any difficulties for the purpose of exploring and recovering more shale gas resources in China.