应用灰色动态模型对事故进行预测分析

利用灰色动态模型的主要方法和观点,分析企、事业发生的工伤事故(损失工作日),建立灰色数据预测模型GM(1,1)的基本模型和微分方程式,并根据累加生成数列结果,预测事物进一步发生、发展的规律,从而预测其在今后一段时间内的变化。最后对统计实例进行计算和相关关联度分析,精度达88％,拟合程度较好。此方法对企、事业单位的安全生产有一定的指导意义。

Accident Predicted by the Gray Dynamic Model

The main process of applying the GDM (gray dynamic model) to predict the event is to build up gray system differential equation model, Gray Model (GM). In this paper, in terms of staff casualty accident, the author uses the gray system predicting method put forward by Deng Julong etc, to build up industrial injury accident (lost man-hour) performance model GM (1,1). Therefore the results show that the matching degree is high, and the GM can be used in industry safety production.