新疆地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究

自1800年以来,新疆及其邻区M≥7强震具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为30a×k(k=1,2,3)、11~12a、41~43a与18~19a等.根据翁文波信息预测理论和复杂网络技术,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的强震预测方法,构建新疆地区M≥7强震信息有序网络结构,充分揭示了新疆地区近200a来M≥7强震链的活动规律,并据此较为成功地预测了2008年于田73级强震的发生.同时还提出新的预测意见:2014—2015年、2019—2020年以及2026年前后新疆地区仍有可能发生M≥7强震.研究结果表明强震是可以预测的.该方法对于强震的中长期跨越式预测具有独特效果

Ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Xinjiang

Since 1800,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang and its neighbourhood region.The main orderly values are 30 a×k(k=1,2,3),11-12 a,41-43 a and 18-19 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and complex network technology,we try to explore the practical methods for M≥7 strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build the informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong eatthquakes in Xinjiang.In this paper,the activity rhythm of M≥7 strong earthquakes in Xinjiang during the past 200 years is revealed fully by the network structure.Based on this,Yutian M7.3 strong earthquake is successfully predicted in 2008.At last,we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably happen in 2014-2015,2019-2020 and 2026 in this region.The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted.This method produces satisfactory results for mid-and-long strong earthquake prediction.