基于模糊理论的三峡升船机重大危险源风险分析

三峡升船机正处于试通航阶段,重大危险源系统风险分析是确保升船机安全可靠运行的关键。首先参考三峡升船机试运行阶段的各项测试数据,确定各类事故危险源;随后基于事故链法则,建立能量不稳定性和事故后果严重度两类风险评价指标体系;最后根据模糊理论,确定评价指标权重及评判隶属度,构建重大危险源的综合模糊评判模型。结果分析表明:最后事故后果严重度指标体系的综合危险程度大于危险源能量不稳定性;三峡升船机重大危险源系统的风险等级为三级,需根据三级预警方案采取防控措施,为三峡升船机正式运行提供保障。

Risk analysis of major hazard source of Three Gorges Ship Lift based on fuzzy theory

The Three Gorges ship lift is in a stage of trial navigation, and systematric analysis on the major hazard sources is the key to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the ship lift. Firstly, we referred to the test data of Three Gorges ship lift in trial navigation stage to determine the types of accidents. Then a hazards' estimating system consisted of energy instability index and accident consequence severity were established based on the accident chain rule. At last, the fuzzy theory was used to determine the weights of assessment index and evaluation membership, so a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model is constructed for the major hazard sources. The analysis results showed that: (1) The comprehensive risk degree of the accident consequences severity system was greater than the energy instability of risk source; (2) The major hazard source system of Three Gorges ship lift risk was classed as three levels. It is needed to take corresponding prevention and control measures according to the three-level warning plan, to provide guarantee for the formal operation of the Three Gorges ship lift.