电力系统中长期负荷的可变权综合预测模型

中长期电力负荷预测是电力系统安全调度、经济运行、优化规划和科学管理的基础与前提，预测的精度高低对国民经济各部门至关重要，因而对电力负荷中长期预测方法的研究既有理论价值又有实际意义。鉴于中长期负荷预测具有研究时间跨度长，影响预测的物理因素复杂且不确定性较大等特点，同时现有的综合预测模型中大都采用了固定不变的权重，本文提出了一种权重可变的电力负荷综合优化预测模型，以更好地反映电力负荷变化的规律。详细的算例分析充分说明了该预测方法的有效性。

STUDY ON THE VARIED WEIGHT SYNTHESIS MODEL OF MID-LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM

Mid-long term electric load forecasting is the foundation and premise of power system security dispatch,economic operation,optimization planning and scientific management,its precision is quite important to each department of national economy,so research on mid-long term load forecasting method is valuable both on theory and practice.Whereas there are some characteristic within mid-long term load forecasting such as the long study time span,the complex physical factors with large uncertainty which have great influence on load forecasting,and the possible original error occurring in basic data of forecasting,furthermore there are fixed weight of synthesis forecasting method used now,a varied weight synthesis model is presented in this paper to reflect the change law of power load better.A detailed example analysis could fully illustrate the validity of the method.