洞庭湖出流丰枯变化与全球海温变异的关系研究

为分析洞庭湖出流丰枯变化与全球海温变异的关系,基于1961~2012年洞庭湖逐月出流资料,分析洞庭湖出流特征,并由此求解与COBE-SST全球逐月海温资料的相关性。结果表明,洞庭湖出流有缓慢减少的趋势,且在不同时间尺度上存在明显的丰枯交替情况;洞庭湖出流量与海温的相关关系显著,枯季尤为明显,最高相关系数达0.7;出流异常年的海温变异特征与我国气候影响因子息息相关,当西太平洋海温较低时,洞庭湖1月出流较多,反之较少;7月出流异常较多的年份北太平洋温度较高,而出流异常较少的年份东太平洋海温较高。

Study on Circulation of Wet and Dry in Dongtinghu Lake and Sea Surface Temperature

The relation of runoff in Dongtinghu lake and the global sea temperature was investigated by the correlation analysis of monthly COBE SST sea temperature and outflow of Dongtinghu lake from 1961 to 2012 and comparison of sea temperature variation in the years of anomalous outflow. The results show the outflow of Dongtinghu lake appears downward trend and there is distinct alternation between the wet and dry seasons in different time scale; the outflow of Dongtinghu lake prominently correlate with sea temperature especially in the dry seasons with the highest correlation coefficient 0.7; the climate factor of China is closely related to the sea temperature variation in the years of anomalous outflow; with the relatively low temperature of west Pacific Ocean, the outflow of Dongtinghu lake in January is relatively high, and relatively low on the contrary; in summer, the temperature of North Pacific Ocean is relatively high in the years of anomalously high outflow while the temperature of East Pacific Ocean is relatively high in the years of anomalously low outflow.