2003年国内外铝压延市场回顾与2004年展望

2003年的全球铝压延产品市场在美国、日本等国经济复苏的促进下继续向前发展，部分地区市场产品价格受汇率变化影响进一步提高，但中国和欧洲地区市场的价格情况不容乐观。2003年全球铝压延产品产量比2002年有所提高，其中铝板带总产量约为14252．3kt、同比增长2．59％，铝箔总产量约为2456．3kt，同比增长6．01％。中国的铝板带产量约为1120kt，居全球第四位；铝箔产量为380kt，居世界第二位。受中国铝压延工业快速发展的影响，预计2004年全球铝压延产能还将继续增加。由于经济复苏或发展快慢的不同，2004年全球各地区供需平衡还将出现微妙变化，仍具增长潜力的亚洲和北美地区市场成为全球产量再次出现增长的原动力。预计铝板带箔总产量将达到17676．4kt。

Review of Global Market of Aluminium Flat Products in 2003 and Prospect of the Market in 2004

In 2003, the global markets of aluminum rolled-products continued to progress forward under the thrust of the economical recoveries in the U. S. A. and Japan, etc. The prices of the rolled-products in some regional markets increased further under the influ-ence of the exchange rate fluctuation; but the prices situation in Chinese and European markets allow no sanguine view.The output of the global rolled-products in 2003 had increased in overall than that in 2002, among which the total output of the aluminum strips and plates was about 14 252.3 kt,increased 2.59% according to the same periodical comparison , and the total output of the aluminum foil products was 2 456.3 kt,increased 6.01% based on the same periodical comparison. In 2003,the output of aluminum strips and plates in China was estimated 1 120 kt,i.e. the no.4 in the world; the output of aluminum foils 380 kt,the no.2 in the world. The pre-estimated global production capacities of the rolled-products in 2004 will continue to increase because they are mainly influenced by the rapid development of the China aluminum rolling industry. Thanks to the discrepancies in the economical recoveries or the slow-rapid of the development, the equilibrium of supply-demand over the world regions in 2004 will occur subtle changes. The Asian and Northern American markets which still have the potential increasing capabilities will became the primary engines of increasing the global output again. The pre-estimated total output of the aluminum foils will reach 17676.4kt in 2004.