| 基于灰色马尔可夫修正模型的城市月用电需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 乔松珊,张建军. 基于灰色马尔可夫修正模型的城市月用电需求预测[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2013, 15(1): 11-14 |
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| 作者姓名： | 乔松珊 张建军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中原工学院信息商务学院,郑州,450007
2. 河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省教育厅人文社科研究项目(2011-QN-220) |
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| 摘 要： | 传统的灰色颅测模型只能反映用电量的总体变化趋势．不能反映月用电量随季节的波动特征为此，基于马尔可夫理论提出了灰色马屿尔可夫修正预测模型，引入了马尔司夫修正系数．并在模型中加入等维信息，研究了同时考虑2种趋势的城市用电需求的预测问题：算例表明．与传统的灰色预测方法相比，马尔可夫修正模型较好地提高了预测的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 用电需求 灰色理论 马尔可夫理论 预测精度 |
The forecasting of monthly electricity demand in city based on grey markov model |
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| QIAO Song-shan , ZHANG Jian-jun. The forecasting of monthly electricity demand in city based on grey markov model[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2013, 15(1): 11-14 |
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| Authors: | QIAO Song-shan ZHANG Jian-jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Zhongyuan University of Technoloy, Zhengzhou 450007, China;2. Henan Agriculture University, Zhengzhou 450002, China) |
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| Abstract: | The traditional gray model only reflects lhe general trend of the rtionthlv electricilv den（and llili failing In reflect the characteristics of tile mnnthlv ellerr（city dmand with sasonal fluctuation. The grey markov modified modl based on the makov theory is proposed, the markov correction cn,fficient is introduced and is added the dimension inrmalioo in the model. The problemof the forecasting of monthly with double trends is researehed in this paprTh,paring with the traditional grey melhods. |
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| Keywords: | monthly elelriily dmmnd grey theory markovtheory forecasting accuracy |
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