气候变化对湖北省未来水资源量变化趋势的影响

为研究湖北省未来水资源量变化趋势,采用全球气候模式未来降雨数据,导入时变增益模型模拟湖北省未来水资源量。结合全国第三次水资源调查评价,应用1957～2016年湖北省实测降雨、径流数据,对时变增益模型进行率定、验证。并选用BCC-CSM1-1、BNU-ESM、FGOALS-g2三种全球气候模式,选取RCP2.6与RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径下的降雨数据,作为时变增益模型的输入。结果表明,三种气候模式下2050～2089年湖北省水资源量相对于2020～2049年总体呈上升趋势,BCC-CSM1-1、BNU-ESM气候模式下RCP8.5浓度路径下的湖北省水资源量总体上低于RCP2.6浓度路径,FGOALS-g2气候模式则相反。

Impact of Climate Change on the Trend of Future Water Resources in Hubei Province

In order to study the future trend of water resources in Hubei Province, the future rainfall data of global climate model and time variant gain model (TVGM) were used to simulate the future water resources of Hubei Province. The measured rainfall and runoff data from 1957 to 2016 in Hubei Province were adopted to calibrate and validate the TVGM according to Third National Water Resources Survey Evaluation. Choosing the three global climate models BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM and FGOALS-g2, the rainfall data under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were taken as the inputs of the TVGM. Compared with 2020-2049, the results show that the water resources of Hubei Province in the three climate models are increasing from 2050 to 2089. The amount of water resources under the RCP8.5 under BCC-CSM1-1 and BNU-ESM climate models is generally lower than that of the RCP2.6, while the FGOALS-g2 climate model is the opposite.