基于博弈集对云的中压配电网运行状态评估与预测

目前,配电网运行评估主要集中在状态等级的确定方面,对发展趋势的分析较少,导致无法识别运行过程中的薄弱环节。同时,考虑到集对分析法的联系度采用线性处理进行量化分析,结果难以客观反映工程实际状况。为此,结合集对分析和云模型构建中压配电网运行状态评价模型,并引入博弈论构建最优组合权重模型。将两种模型的结果加权确定出综合云联系度,生成对应的状态云图以掌握配电网的运行状态。再根据各指标偏联系数的发展态势,识别出配电网运行过程中的潜在风险。最后,以宜昌市内3个地区的运行数据为例验证模型的合理性,评估结果与实际运行情况相符。同时,各地配电网的置信因子均小于0.01,验证了模型的有效性。研究成果可用于指导工程实践。

Evaluation and Prediction of Operation Status of Medium Voltage Distribution Network Based on Game Set Pair Cloud

At present, the operation evaluation of the distribution network is mainly focused on the determination of the status level, and the analysis of the development trend is less, which makes it impossible to identify the weak links in the operation process. At the same time, considering the connection degree of the set pair analysis method using linear processing for quantitative analysis, the result is difficult to objectively reflect the actual status of the project. Combined with set pair analysis and cloud model was used to build a medium-voltage distribution network operation status evaluation model. And then the game theory was introduced to establish optimal combination weight model. The results of the above two models were weighted to determine the comprehensive cloud connection degree, and the corresponding state cloud map was generated to grasp the operation state of the distribution network. According to the development trend of the partial connection number of each index, the potential risks in the operation of the distribution network were identified. Finally, the operation data of the three regions in Yichang City were used to verify the rationality of the model. The evaluation results were consistent with the actual operation conditions. The confidence factor of the distribution network in each place was less than 0.01, which verifies the validity of the model. The research results can be used to guide engineering practice.