气候变化和人类活动干扰下万泉河流域水文情势变化特征分析

由于气候变化和人类活动的共同作用,众多河流的水文情势发生改变,因此分析环境变化的河流水文情势影响机理对河流保护有重要意义。基于万泉河加报站1957～2014年的日流量资料,通过Mann-Kendall和累积距平法诊断径流序列的突变点,将水文序列划分为两个时间序列,采用水文变化指标法(IHA)、变化范围法(RVA)和直方图匹配法(HMA)分析万泉河水文情势的改变度。结果表明,年径流序列1990年发生突变;变异后,径流特性发生改变,逆转次数显著增加,增幅为28.81%,RVA法的水文改变度DR值为89.85%,发生了高度变异,HMA法的水文改变度DH值为66.34%,表现为中度变异,会对生态系统稳定性带来威胁;流域内热带雨林破坏加剧,植被结构改变是导致河流水文情势变化的重要原因。研究结果可为水资源管理和生态保护提供参考。

Variation Characteristics Analysis of Hydrological Regime of Wanquan River Basin under Interference of Climate Change and Human Activities

With the combination influence of climate change and human activities, the hydrological regime of many rivers has been changed. Therefore, analysis of the impact mechanism of the hydrological regime under environmental change has significance of protection river. Based on the daily runoff data of Jiabao Station in Wanquan River from 1957 to 2014, Mann-Kendall method and accumulated variance analysis were used to determine the sudden change points of the streamflow. The hydrological time series was divided into two period. The alteration of hydrological regime was analyzed by using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) method, the range of variability approach (RVA), and the histogram matching approach (HMA). The results indicate that the sudden change point was taken place in 1990, resulting in the change of runoff characteristics. The number of reversals increase significantly, with an increase of 28.81%, a DR value of 89.85%, and a DH value of 66.34%, which would threaten the ecosystem. The destruction of tropical forests in the Wanquan River Basin is intensified, and the change of vegetation structure is an important reason for the alteration of the hydrological regime. The research results can provide guidance for water management and ecological protection.