基于改进灰靶模型的城市洪涝承灾风险评价

针对现有城市洪涝灾害评价方法中存在的不足,首先综合考虑城市社会经济发展和防灾减灾建设水平两方面,构建城市洪涝承灾风险评价指标体系;其次,针对传统灰靶模型,利用马氏距离改进其忽略指标间相关性的不足,引入TOPSIS模型定义相对靶心,结合AHP-EWM求解组合权重,建立了改进灰靶模型;最后以郑州市为例,计算2000～2015年的正、负和相对靶心距,均表明城市洪涝承灾风险总体上呈上升趋势。分析城市化建设导致的承灾能力脆弱、与防灾减灾建设水平不能相匹配的状况,给出了城市防灾建设建议。研究成果可为提升城市洪涝灾害承灾水平提供参考。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Urban Flood Risk Based on Improved Grey Target Model

In view of the shortcomings in the existing urban flood disaster assessment methods, the assessment index system of urban flood-bearing risk was firstly established, including urban social and economic development, and disaster prevention capacity. Secondly, an improved grey target model was presented, which introduced Mahalanobis distance to improve the neglect of correlation between indicators, used the TOPSIS model to determine relative target center, and calculated combination weights with AHP-EWM. Finally, taking Zhengzhou City as an example, the positive, negative and relative target distances from 2000 to 2015 were calculated, indicating that urban flood risk is generally on the rise. The paper analyzed the mismatch between fragile disaster-bearing capacity caused by the rapidly developing urbanization and disaster prevention and reduction capacity, and gave some suggestions for the construction of urban disaster prevention. Research results can provide reference for improving the level of urban flood.