不同水文干旱指数在天山西部山区的适用性分析

为了更好地指导天山西部山区干旱早期预警及防灾减灾工作,基于区域水文干旱指数、标准化径流指数、径流距平指数和径流Z指数,从与历史干旱事件的相符性和典型干旱事件的甄别能力等方面评估了1960～2014年天山西部山区喀什河流域的干旱特征。结果表明,区域水文干旱指数监测干旱效果最为准确,能够全面识别和反映研究区的干旱特征,主要原因是该指数充分考虑了对干旱发生起决定作用的降水、径流要素。总体上,研究区干旱呈减弱趋势,尤其在1980s以后干旱缓解更为明显。

Applicability Analysis of Different Hydrological Drought Indexes in Western Tianshan Mountains

In order to better guide the early warning of drought and disaster prevention and reduction in the Western Mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountain, standardized hydrological index, runoff anomaly index, runoff index and standardized runoff index were used to evaluate the drought characteristics of the Kashi River Basin in the western mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountains from 1960 to 2014 in terms of the consistency with historical drought events and the discrimination ability of typical drought events. The results showed that the hydrological drought index was the most accurate drought monitoring index, which could comprehensively identify or reflect the drought characteristics of the study area. The main reason was that the index fully considers the precipitation and runoff factors that play a decisive role in the occurrence of drought. On the whole, the drought in the study area was weakening, especially after 1980s.