呼兰河流域上游天然径流变化趋势及突变特征分析

鉴于呼兰河流域径流研究较少的问题,根据呼兰河流域上游铁力水文站1953～2014年天然径流资料,采用Db3小波分解法、Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析法分别研究了流域上游年径流量、月最小径流量的趋势性、突变性和持续性特征,并从气候变化和人类活动两方面定性讨论了径流发生变化的原因。结果表明,铁力气象站年降水量、铁力水文站年径流量变化特征一致,均呈不显著减少变化,未来将持续减少,突变点位于1965年;铁力水文站最小月径流量、铁力气象站春季月均最低气温变化特征一致,均呈不显著增加变化,未来将继续增加;降水变化是径流变化主因之一;春季月均最低气温升高会增加冰雪融水,加之各类水利工程建设的综合作用导致流域径流发生变化。研究成果可对合理开发利用呼兰河流域水资源起到一定积极作用。

Analysis of Variation Trend and Mutation Characteristics of Natural Runoff in the Upstream of the Hulanhe River Basin

Given the few problems in the study of runoff in the Hulanhe River Basin, according to the runoff data of the Tieli horological station in the upstream of the Hulanhe river basin from 1953 to 2014, the Db3 wavelet decomposition method, Mann-Kendall method and R/S analysis method are used to study the change trend, mutation characteristics and future continuity trend of the annual runoff and the minimum monthly runoff respectively, and the reasons for these changes are qualitatively discussed in terms of climate change and human activities. The results show that the annual precipitation of the Tieli meteorological station and the annual runoff of the Tieli horological station are consistent, and the annual values are not significantly reduced; The annual values in the future will continue to decrease, and the mutation point of the annual values is in 1965; The minimum monthly runoff of the Tieli horological station and the minimum monthly average temperature in spring of the Tieli meteorological station are consistent, the minimum monthly values are not significantly increased, and the minimum monthly values in the future will continue to increase. Meanwhile, precipitation change is one of the main reasons to cause runoff change; The increase of the minimum monthly average temperature in spring will increase the melt water, and the comprehensive effect of the various water conservancy projects will lead to runoff change. The research results can play an active role in the rational development and utilization of water resources for the Hulanhe river basin.