新疆阿克苏河流域水资源承载力变化分析

为合理利用、优化配置阿克苏河流域水资源,提高流域水资源承载力,采用主成分分析法定量衡量阿克苏河流域2006～2015年影响水资源承载力的15个指标,并根据主成分的得分贡献率,计算综合得分,以判定水资源承载力年际变化的规律。结果表明,影响阿克苏河流域水资源承载力的主要因素为人口、经济、水资源总量和农业用水。其中,2006年阿克苏河流域水资源承载力最小,综合得分为-25.053,随后为区间波动但总体上升的变化趋势,直至2015年承载力达到最大,综合得分为30.555。因此应加强水资源的管理和规划,实行严格的用水定额管理,以加强本流域的水资源承载力。

Analysis of Change of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Aksu River Basin of Xinjiang

To make full use of water resources rationally and improve water resources carrying capacity in Aksu River Basin, the principal component analysis method which aimed at analyzing annual change of water resources carrying capacity is adopted in this paper. Fifteen indexes affecting water resources carrying capacity are measured from 2006 to 2015 via this method, and the score of water resources carrying capacity is calculated as per score of squared loading of each principal component. The results show that the main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity of the Aksu River Basin are population, economy, total volume of water resources and agricultural water consumption. The water resources carrying capacity of Aksu River Basin has reached the smallest in 2006, with a comprehensive score of -25.053, it reached the maximum with a score of 30.555 until 2015, which showed a rising trend in general with individual fluctuation over these years. Hence, the better management and planning of water resources and strict water quota management are needed to enhance the water resources carrying capacity.