水文综合改变度动态评估模型构建与应用

根据龙羊峡水库下游贵德水文站1954～2017年流量数据,利用粗糙集理论、集对分析理论及变化范围法确定水文综合改变度,通过集对-马氏链评估方法建立了一种关于水文综合改变度的动态评估模型,探讨龙羊峡水库水文综合改变度变化及趋势。结果表明,该模型在时段预测及稳态预测有较好的表现;2013～2017年时段的模型预测结果与实际计算结果相同,同为中度改变;现阶段水文综合改变度处于高度改变状态,但具有逐渐向好的态势,经多个周期变化达到稳定态势后呈现为低度改变。

Construction and Application of Dynamic Evaluation Model of Overall Hydrological Alternation Degree

According to the discharge data of Guide Hydrological Station in the lower reaches of the Longyangxia Reservoir from 1954 to 2017, a overall hydrological alternation degree is determined by rough set theory, set pair analysis theory and range of variability approach. A dynamic evaluation model of the overall hydrological alternation degree is established by the set pair analysis -markov chain method. And then the changes of the overall hydrological alternation degree and trend prediction of Longyangxia Reservoir are discussed. The results show that the model has better performance in time prediction and steady state prediction; The prediction results of the model in the period of 2013-2017 are the same as the actual calculation results, both of which are moderately changes; At present, the overall hydrological alternation degree is in a state of high change, but it has a trend of gradual improvement, and shows a low change after reaching a stable state through several periodic changes.