计及实时老化状态的大型变压器本体绝缘故障率预测模型研究

故障率是电力系统中一项可靠性评估参数,通过故障率计算可靠性指标与设备故障损失对于电力系统的规划与电力系统的运行至关重要。为此,提出一种考虑老化失效的大型变压器本体绝缘故障率预测模型,即先建立变压器的温升老化失效模型,得到变压器实时的老化速率及运行状态;其次,建立多状态马尔可夫故障率预测模型,对变压器本体绝缘实时故障率进行预测;最后,利用比例故障率模型结合老化失效过程对变压器当前的状态转移速率进行修正,进而得到更加精确的变压器实时预测故障率。算例分析表明,通过老化失效模型对多状态马尔可夫故障率预测模型进行修正,能够更加精确地对变压器本体绝缘实时故障率进行预测。

Prediction Model of Large Transformer Failure Rate Considering Real-time Aging State

Failure rate is a reliability evaluation parameter in power systems. It is very important to calculate the reliability index and the equipment fault loss with the failure rate for planning and operation of power systems. In this paper, a failure rate prediction model of a large-scale transformer insulation is proposed considering aging failure. Firstly, the failure rate model of the transformer is established, and the current failure rate and running state of the transformer are obtained. Secondly, a multi-state Markov failure rate prediction model is established to predict the real-time failure rate of the transformer. Finally, the proportional failure rate model is combined with the aging failure process to correct the current state transition rate of the transformer. Thus, a more accurate real-time prediction failure rate of the transformer is obtained. Example analysis shows that the multi-state Markov failure rate prediction model can be modified by the aging failure model, and the real-time failure rate can be predicted more accurately.