基于缓冲算子和指数修正的优化灰色预测模型的中长期负荷预测

本文对传统的灰色预测模型进行了改进,一方面,为了强化原始数列的大致趋势,减弱异常值的影响,采用了弱化缓冲算子进行了处理;另一方面,也对指数a模型加以优化修正;数值试验表明,改进的灰色预测模型有效地改善了模型预测精度,并扩大模型适用范围,最后对某市2001-2010年间的电力负荷进行了预测.

Long-term Load Forecasting of Grey Forecasting Model Based on Buffer Operator and the Index Optimization

In this paper,the traditional gray prediction model is improved,on the one hand,the weakening buffer operators is used for processing in order to enhance the general trend of the original sequence, and abate the influence of the outliers.On the other hand,optimization model is modified,and the numerical experiments show that the improved grey forecasting model effectively improves the model accuracy, and expand the model scope of application.Finally, make power load forecasting in a city between 2001 and 2010.