灰色组合预测模型在配电网可靠性预测中的应用

针对配电网可靠性的特点，在充分考虑可靠性指标的历史变化趋势并顾及各种相关因素对可靠性指标影响的情况下．分别建立了基于历史统计数据的横向预测模型和考虑相关因素影响的纵向预测模型，形成了灰色组合预测模型．充分发挥了灰色预测模型所需样本小、精确度高的优点。该模型为配电网可靠性指标的预测提供了新的实用方法，同时．其结果可以为配电网的规划设计、运行和维护提供新的依据。通过对某地区配电网可靠性统计数据的实例分析，证明了该方法的有效性。

Application of a Grey Combination Forecasting Model in power Distribution System Reliability

In view of the characteristics of distribution system＇s reliability, this paper not only gives full consideration to the historical trend of reliability index, but also allow for the effect of each correlative factor. The transverse and lengthways forecast models constructed in the paper give full play to the grey model for the advantages of high accuracy and small samples. It presents a new practical method for improving the planning and design, operation and maintenance of distribution system. It is proved to be validity through a reliability example of statistical data analysis in the power distribution system of a certain area.