Historical carbon footprinting and implications for sustainability planning: a case study of the Pittsburgh region

This study estimates fossil-based CO(2) emissions and energy use from 1900-2000 for Allegheny County, PA. Total energy use and emissions increased from 1900 to 1970, reflecting the significant industrial, economic, and population growth that occurred in Allegheny County. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Despite these dramatic economic and demographic transitions, per capita emissions remained stable from 1970 to 2000, buoyed by relatively stable or slightly increasing emissions in the commercial and transportation sectors. Allegheny County's history suggests the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. Our results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing.