湖南省新型城镇化与物流业关联机制实证研究

根据湖南省1996—2015年的时间序列样本构建向量自回归模型,借用协整检验法、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法定量分析新型城镇化与物流业发展之间的关联机制,并进行系统阐述。结果表明,湖南省新型城镇化建设与物流业发展存在明显的关联性,新型城镇化建设对物流业发展有明显的带动作用,但物流业发展对新型城镇化的推动作用却不太显著。

An Empirical Research on the Correlative Mechanism of New-Type Urbanization and Logistics in Hunan Province

Based on a series of data gathered in Hunan Province from 1996 to 2015, a vector auto-regressive model has been established. By adopting such methods as cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, a quantitative analysis of the correlation mechanism between the new urbanization and the development of logistics industry has thus been made, followed by a systematic formulation of the mechanism. The results show that there is a distinct correlation between the new urbanization construction and the development of logistics industry in Hunan province. The new-type urbanization exerts a positive effect on the promotion of logistics industry, however, the development of the logistics industry fails to plays a very active role in the promotion of the new-type urbanization in Hunan province.