| 贝叶斯DLM的销售预测系统的研究与实现 |
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| 引用本文： | 王莉,沈冬. 贝叶斯DLM的销售预测系统的研究与实现[J]. 计算机仿真, 2008, 25(7) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王莉 沈冬 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京科技大学信息工程学院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对某大型钢铁公司对钢铁销售情况预测的需求,在公司海量的钢材销售数据的基础上建立了预测分析模型,以jsya作为开发语言,建立起基于oracle的数据仓库,数据挖掘算法采用贝叶斯动态模型(DLM-Dynamic Linear Models)预测算法,通过递归运算,提高运算的精度,最后用图形的仿真来预测钢厂的销售情况,形成了用于数据挖掘的预测分析系统.通过了现场的实际运行,将实际值和预测值进行对比,验证了模型建立的正确性,同时预测值达到了较高的预测精度.对管理者的决策提供了重要的参考价值,实际应用效果良好,可以在钢铁行业内推广应用.
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯动态模型 数据挖掘 预测 钢材销售 |
Study and Realization of a Forecasting System for Steel Selling Based on Bayesian Dynamic Model |
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| WANG Li,SHEN Dong. Study and Realization of a Forecasting System for Steel Selling Based on Bayesian Dynamic Model[J]. Computer Simulation, 2008, 25(7) |
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| Authors: | WANG Li SHEN Dong |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Li,SHEN Dong(Department of Information Engineering,Beijing University of Science & Technology,Beijing 100083,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to steel sale of a large steel company,the paper has built a database by using oracle database based on vast amounts of steel selling data of the steel company,and proposed a forecasting analysis model by means of DLM(Dynamic Linear Models),then the forecasting analysis system used for data mining has come into being finally.The on-site system running has verified the correctness of the constructed model through comparing real value with predicted value,and the model also reaches a higher forecast... |
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| Keywords: | Dynamic linear models(DLM) Data mining Forecasting Steel sale |
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