The terrestrial particulate environment and its future evolution

In this paper an overview over the current space debris situation is given. With the help of ESA's new Meteoroid And Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) model, the spatial density of space debris is calculated as function of altitude and latitude. Statistical information about collision risk and collision velocities is presented. In order to estimate the ratio of debris to meteoroid impacts on the surfaces of returned hardware from space (LDEF, Hubble Space Telescope solar array and EuReCa) a state-of-the-art meteoroid model is required. At the Max-Planck-Institute in Heidelberg the meteoroid model of Neil Divine was enhanced and implemented in a software programme used at ESOC for meteoroid flux predictions on satellite surfaces. Finally, using the models of the current environment as initial conditions an attempt is made to predict the future evolution of the space debris environment. Two models using different approaches are considered: CHAINEE, a particle-in-the-box model and SDM, a semi-deterministic model. Both models are used to study the effectiveness of debris mitigation measures.