基于真实人际接触数据的新冠肺炎校园传播与防控

随着新冠肺炎疫情在中国的稳定，复学成为目前广大人民群众最关心的热点问题。学生和老师在学校长时间聚集和面对面接触增加了相互传染疾病的风险，虽然学校停课一般被认为是缓解流行病的最可行策略，然而大面积的隔离往往伴随着高昂的社会经济成本甚至会造成社会恐慌。所以在学校出现疫情时，需要尝试使用更加细致科学的防控措施。该文基于真实人际接触数据模拟新冠病毒在校园内的传播，通过计算学生之间的有效距离制定防控措施。研究发现学生在校园内与同班级、同年级学生接触较多，所以当在校园中发现病例时，及时封闭患者班级、年级就可控制住疫情的发展，能取得与封闭学校近似、甚至更好的效果。此外，在无封闭和施加防控措施情况下，分别对无症状患者比例和潜伏期传染性对校园疫情影响进行了分析。在施加防控措施后，每种情况下的疫情都会得到控制，并且会很快迎来疫情好转的时间点。该研究有助于学校选取合适的防控措施，准确评估无症状患者和潜伏期传染性对疫情的影响。

Infection and Prevention of COVID-19 in Schools Based on Real-Life Interpersonal Contact Data

With the stabilization of the COVID-19 in China, the resumption of study has become the hottest issue most concerned by the people. The long-time gathering and face-to-face contact of students and teachers in schools increase the risk of their mutual infection. Although school suspension is generally considered to be the most feasible strategy to alleviate epidemics, large-scale isolation is often accompanied by high socio-economic costs and even social panic. Therefore, when an outbreak occurs in schools, we need to try to use more detailed scientific prevention and control measures. In this study, the spread of the COVID-19 in schools is simulated based on real interpersonal contact data, and the prevention and control measures are formulated by calculating the effective distance among students. This study finds that students have more contact with students in the same class and grade in schools. Therefore, when cases are found in schools, the development of the epidemic can be controlled by closing the patient's class and grade in time, and it will achieve similar or even better results than the closed school. In addition, in the absence of closure and the application of prevention and control measures, the impact of the proportion of asymptomatic patients and the incubation period infectivity in school outbreaks are analyzed, respectively. After the prevention and control measures are applied, the epidemic situation in each case will be controlled, and it will soon usher in a time when the epidemic situation improves. The research in this paper helps schools to select appropriate prevention and control measures, and accurately assess the impact of asymptomatic patients and incubation period infectivity on the epidemic.