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新冠肺炎爆发前期武汉外流人口的地理去向分布及影响
引用本文:许小可,文成,张光耀,孙皓宸,刘波,王贤文.新冠肺炎爆发前期武汉外流人口的地理去向分布及影响[J].电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2020,49(3):324-329.
作者姓名:许小可  文成  张光耀  孙皓宸  刘波  王贤文
作者单位:1.大连民族大学信息与通信工程学院 辽宁 大连 116600
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(61773091,71673038);辽宁省高等学校创新人才支持计划(LR2016070);辽宁省“兴辽英才”计划(XLYC1807106);辽宁省重点研发计划指导计划(2018104016)
摘    要:该文基于腾讯和百度等地理位置服务所收集到的大规模人口流动数据,对春节前从武汉离开人口的地理分布进行了统计分析。研究发现,首先,虽然武汉市关闭出城通道前的500万流出人口和往年春运期间的正常人口流动无较大差别,但确实有少量人口在“封城”前的最后一段时间内涌出武汉。其次,统计了2020年开始从武汉流出人口的目的地城市信息,发现和往年的目的地分布基本上是一致的。最后,分析了离汉人口对于疾病传播的影响,在衡量影响时必须要考虑潜伏期的作用。该文研究有助于相关人员掌握疫情扩散速度、评估疫情风险,对预测以及阻止新冠肺炎传播提供参考。

关 键 词:COVID-19    地理大数据    新冠肺炎    人口流动
收稿时间:2020-02-03

The Geographical Destination Distribution and Effect of Outflow Population of Wuhan When the Outbreak of COVID-19
Affiliation:1.College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University Dalian Liaoning 1166002.WISE Lab, Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management, Dalian University of Technology Dalian Liaoning 1160243.Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu 610054
Abstract:In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of population movements leaving Wuhan based on mass population movement information which is collected by geographic services of Tencent and Baidu. Firstly, we find that the five million people leaving Wuhan before the official announcement that they will close the exits are not much different from the normal population movement during the previous Spring Festival travel rush. However, small portion of the population poured out of Wuhan in the last period before the exits closed. Secondly, according to statistics of the destination cities of the outflow population from Wuhan starting from 2020, we find that the destination distribution of folks in 2020 was basically same as that in previous years. Finally, the influence of the population leaving Wuhan on epidemic spread is analyzed. We find that the role of incubation period must be considered when measuring this influence. This study is helpful for relevant personnel to grasp the speed of epidemic spread, assess the risk of epidemic, and provides reference to predict and stop disease spreading.
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