新冠肺炎疫情对民族地区人口流动的影响

新冠肺炎传播的主要渠道是宏观和微观的人口流动，而人口和物资流动又是推动经济发展、保证人民生活水平的重要手段，对于经济发展相对落后的民族地区而言尤其重要。该文基于百度迁徙数据证实了人口流动数据与城市GDP指标具有极强的相关性，并对新冠疫情期间民族地区城市的人口流入、人口流出和城市内人口流动情况进行量化分析，研究表明受疫情影响，2020年春节后我国城市人口流动呈现先大幅度下降后缓慢上升趋势，并且疫情后人口流出量和人口流入量减少反映了我国长途人口流动受限，而城市内人口流动增加反映了疫情后短途流动略有增加。新冠肺炎疫情对全国不同民族地区的影响差异较大，西北民族地区受疫情影响尤其明显，个别城市平均人口流动量下降50%以上，而对西南民族地区的影响相对较小。通过对疫情期间民族地区人口流动和经济变化进行统计分析，并对各个城市受疫情影响程度进行刻画，有助于针对这些地区制定出更有效的防控策略和扶贫帮扶措施，该分析结果可为相关部门提供决策参考。

The COVID-19 Impact on Population Flow of Ethnic Minority Areas

The main channel for the spread of the COVID-19 is the macro and micro population flow, and the flow of population and materials is an important means to promote economic development and ensure people's living standards. It is especially important for ethnic minority areas with relatively backward economic development. Based on the data, this article confirms that the population movement data has a strong correlation with the GDP, and quantitatively analyzes the population inflows and outflows and urban internal flows in ethnic minority areas during the COVID-19. It is found that China's urban population flow has showed a sharp decline at first and then a slow rise since the Spring Festival in 2020, and the decrease in population outflow and inflow reflects the fact that the COVID-19 has limited long-distance population movements, but short-distance mobility has been found to increase slightly based on internal flow of cities. The COVID-19 has a different impact on population mobility and economic activities in different ethnic minority areas, and its impact on the northwest minority national regions is particularly obvious, the average population flow of individual cities has dropped by more than 50%, and the impact on ethnic minority areas in southwestern regions is relatively small. By analyzing of population flow and economic changes in ethnic minority areas during the COVID-19, and characterizing the extent of the impact of the COVID-19 on each city, it is helpful to formulate more effective prevention, control strategies and poverty alleviation measures for these areas. The analysis results can provide the decision-making reference for relevant departments.