| 新冠疫情下大型体育赛事风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王逸伟,谢明,谢晓雯,王志鹏,王敏,詹秀秀,刘闯,张子柯.新冠疫情下大型体育赛事风险评估[J].电子科技大学学报（自然科学版）,2022,51(6):937-946. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王逸伟 谢明 谢晓雯 王志鹏 王敏 詹秀秀 刘闯 张子柯 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.杭州师范大学阿里巴巴复杂研究中心 杭州 311121 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA324)；国家自然科学基金重大项目(92146001)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(61873080)；浙江省自然科学基金(LQ22F030008) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对东京奥运会疫情与舆情的分析来评估北京冬奥会举办期间疫情及舆情方面的潜在风险。结果表明，新冠疫情和东京奥运的舆情之间存在较强的时滞相关性。对于疫情，在城市层面，使用多主体建模方法对赛事举办城市内可能的疾病传播进行了模拟；在奥运村层面，基于SEIR传播模型，对北京冬奥会期间奥运村中的病毒传播情况进行了模拟；结合时序预测模型对北京冬奥会的举办进行了风险分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 多主体建模 基本再生数 北京冬奥会 新冠疫情 SEIR模型 时序预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-21 |
Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Sports Events in the Context of COVID-19 |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University Hangzhou 3111212.School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University Haidian Beijing 1008753.College of Media and International Culture, Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310058 |
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| Abstract: | This paper assesses the potential risks of epidemic situation and public opinion during the Beijing Winter Olympic Games by analyzing the epidemic situation and public opinion of the Tokyo Olympic Games. The results show that there is a strong time-lag correlation between the COVID-19 epidemic and the public opinion of the Tokyo Olympics. For the epidemic situation, the multi-agent modeling method is used at the city level to simulate the possible spread of diseases in the city where the event was held. At the Olympic village level, the modified the SEIR transmission model is modified to simulate the virus transmission in the Olympic Village during the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. At the end, the risk analysis of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games is carried out based on the time series prediction model. |
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