新冠肺炎疫情影响下区域产业网络风险传导效应研究

新冠肺炎疫情的突发和快速蔓延，使我国区域产业经济面临严峻挑战。疫情导致部份产业供给中断和需求下滑，并通过产业链扩散蔓延至整个网络，极易引发系统性风险。为模拟疫情影响下区域产业供应链的风险传导效应，该文通过构建我国区域产业网络，引入网络级联失效模型，模拟湖北产业供给中断、需求下滑以及不同产业产能受限和需求下降的情况下，停产和流动性风险的传导效应。结果显示，风险的扩散呈现突变态势，存在临界时间点。临界点前风险扩散较为缓慢平稳，一旦突破临界点，则加速蔓延使整个产业网络在短时期内陷入瘫痪。不同产业在供给侧和需求端的冲击影响下，对系统性风险水平的影响具有异质性。

Modeling the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Regional Industry Risk Contagion

The outbreak and rapid spread of Covid-19 epidemic have brought severe challenges to the regional economy of China. The epidemic has led to interruptions in supply and decline in demand in some industries, causing supply chain risk spread through the industry chain to the entire network, which is very likely to trigger systemic risks. In order to simulate the risk contagion effect of the regional industrial supply chain under the influence of the epidemic, a network cascading failure model based on China's regional industrial network is proposed. We simulate the propagation of production suspension and liquidity risk in the case of unexpected interruption of supply and decline in demand in Hubei province as well as the rest part of China. The results show that risk propagation exhibits an abrupt transition with a critical time point. The risk spread is relatively slow and stable before the critical point. Once the critical point is exceeded, the accelerated spread makes the entire industrial network blackout in a short period. We also show that under the impact of supply-side and demand-side shocks, different industries have heterogeneous effects on systemic risk levels. re industrial network blackout in a short period. We also show that different industries have heterogeneous impact on systemic risk of the industry network under shocks from supply and demand side.